For crypto exchanges · prediction markets · forex brokers · prop firms
Risk, liquidity and hedging. Done with the math, not by feel.
We build risk models. Or fix yours.
Same mathematics, every venue
- P(|X̄ₙ − μ| > ε) → 0
- law of large numbers
- q* = μ − γσ²(T − t)
- inventory-skewed reservation price
- VaR₉₉ = −F⁻¹(0.01)
- tail, not average
Who we serve
Venues that run their own book, see client flow, and carry risk that has to be computed rather than felt.
Crypto exchanges
Centralized and perpetual DEX. Matching, funding, liquidation and market-making risk on one balance sheet.
Prediction markets
Binary and multi-outcome books, inventory skew, and pricing under thin liquidity.
Forex / CFD brokers
A-book, B-book and hybrid flow. Exposure limits, hedging cost, and where the P&L actually comes from.
Prop firms
Evaluation rules, payout risk, and the statistics behind who passes and what it costs you.
What we do
Three areas, one foundation: the same mathematics.
Probability, inventory models and tail estimation applied to a live order flow.
Risk Management
- Exposure and position limits that reflect real volatility, not a fixed number.
- Tail and drawdown estimation for the book you actually run.
- Circuit breakers, daily loss controls and kill switches.
- Toxic flow and abuser detection, and what it costs you.
- Risk reporting that operators can act on.
Market Making
- Quoting models: spread, skew, size and refresh logic.
- Inventory control and price anchoring.
- Fee, rebate and adverse-selection economics.
- Behaviour under volatility spikes and thin books.
Hedge Strategy
- Hedge sizing, timing and venue selection.
- Cost of hedging versus cost of carrying risk.
- Cross-venue and cross-instrument hedges.
- Monitoring, reconciliation and failure modes.
Approach
Risk is a distribution, not a number.
Every venue we look at is different on the surface and the same underneath. Order flow is a random process. Inventory is a position in that process. Once the model is written down, most of the "gut feel" decisions turn out to be either already answered by the math or plainly wrong.
Measure, then decide.
Every limit, spread and hedge ratio comes from data on your flow, not from a template.
Invariants over dashboards.
We define what must always be true (positions reconcile, exposure stays inside bounds) and make the system check it continuously.
Risk is computed before the trade.
Pricing, sizing and hedging are one model, not three departments.
Failure modes are part of the design.
Disconnects, stale feeds, partial fills and volatility spikes are handled explicitly, with kill switches that actually trigger.
Solutions
Two ways in.
Audit
Start here
Fixed scope, short timeline. We review what you have and tell you what is wrong, what matters, and what to do about it.
What we look at
- Input data validation.
- Risk model and limits.
- Pricing and quoting logic.
- Hedging setup and its real cost.
- Flow toxicity and who is trading against you.
- How the model is technically wired into the engine.
- Reporting: what it shows and what it hides.
Deliverable: a written report with findings ranked by impact, and a debrief call.
B2B
For venues that want the work done, not just described. Design, implementation and ongoing support across risk management, market making and hedge strategy.
What it includes
- Model design and calibration on your data.
- Implementation by us, or alongside your engineering team.
- Monitoring, alerting and operational runbooks.
- 24/7 support and periodic re-calibration.
FAQ
Things clients ask first.
Who are you?
A team of quants and engineers with 15+ years in fintech. We have seen how risk is actually run inside venues from small startups to the largest players, and we have built it ourselves. The core team is based in Cyprus.
Do you sign an NDA?
Yes. An NDA is always in place before any access is granted.
What do you need from us to start?
An intro: what you run and what hurts. From there we tell you what we can help with and which data we will need.
Is the work remote?
Yes. All engagements run remotely.
Our engine is custom-built. Is that a problem?
No. Most are. We work from what actually runs, not from vendor documentation.
Do you work with DEXs and on-chain venues?
Yes, including perpetual DEXs and prediction markets.
How long does an audit take?
Once access is in place and the data is validated as fit for analysis: two to four weeks, depending on scope. Solutions are scoped per engagement.
What does an audit cost?
Depends on scope. We quote a fixed price once the scope is agreed.
Contact
Tell us what you run and where it hurts.
No forms, no sales funnel. A person reads every message.
- hello@conrod.io
- Call
- calendly.com/conrod